Atwater predicted before anyone else that Clinton would be the greatest threat to Bush 41. He took the Clintons' Whitewater investment, in which they lost their entire $28,000, and made it the target of a $70 million federal investigation, which produced little of interest except a campaign talking point.
The funny thing was, Atwater didn't much care if he was a Republican or a Democrat. It was only about winning. Looking for opportunities in college, he picked the Young Republicans because there were fewer of them and better opportunities for him. Ever since he managed a campaign for class president in high school, he found himself more at home behind the scenes. In the Young Republicans, he managed Karl Rove's campaign to lead the organization. Members of the YRs at the time believe Rove probably lost, but say Atwater stole the election and then placed the decision into the hands of Vice President George H.W. Bush, who decided in favor of Rove.
Soon he was inside the Republican national party. Having helped Reagan survive Iran-contra, he more or less appointed himself Bush 41's campaign adviser. He created the infamous Willie Horton ads when Bush ran against Michael Dukakis, and floated rumors that Dukakis was against the Pledge of Allegiance. Asked at the time about the labeling of Dukakis as unpatriotic, young Bush 43 said to call him that would be a "mis-adjective."
Even while running Bush 41's campaign, he was never admitted to the Bush inner circle, Barbara Bush distrusted him, and he came close to being fired. Then Bush started winning primaries. Remembering that presidential year, the Republican strategist Mary Matalin says, "Bush was a wimp and a wuss. Atwater was a hick and a hack." Atwater perfected at that time the technique of the "push-pull" poll, where the question itself served to spread suspicion ("do you believe Governor Dukakas opposes saluting the flag?"). He and George W. Bush became fast friends soon after they met, Rove adopted his tactics, and Atwater's posthumous influence could be seen in the Swift-Boating of John Kerry.
"Boogie Man: The Lee Atwater Story," a remarkable documentary directed by Stefan Forbes, uses interviews with Atwater's targets and, especially, his old comrades, to paint a remarkable portrait of Atwater, who was charming, funny, smart and a good enough blues musician to play on David Letterman and cut an album with B.B. King. He was also tortured and driven, and a bi-partisan backstabber. Ed Rollins, Atwater's White House boss at the time, says in the doc that Atwater leaked a false story to ABC that "top GOP sources" said Rollins was leading an undercover effort to smear Geraldine Ferraro. Atwater wanted to force Rollins out in a new Bush administration, he says. Rollins hated him. But when Atwater was dying, he begged Rollins to look after him. "They're trying to destroy me," he said.
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